NBA Betting Guide: How to Place Your Basketball Bets in the US

Are you ready to take your NBA betting game to the next level? Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just getting started, this ultimate guide has you covered. From insider tips, rules, and trends to top sportsbooks and proven strategies, we’ll help you maximize your winnings and make smarter bets.

Curious about how NBA betting lines are set, or looking for the best picks to outsmart the odds? We’ve got everything you need to dominate the court!

🔑 Key Takeaways

• Understand the different types of NBA betting lines and NBA odds.
• Learn about the legal status of NBA gambling in the US.
• Explore our recommended top NBA betting sites.
• Try out our expert strategies for successful NBA betting.

Top NBA Betting Sites 2024

Take a look at three of the best NBA betting sites and apps you can use in your betting journey. To have a better look at what each recommended sportsbook offers and what you can claim by registering, I suggest you read our complete guide by clicking this link.

Legality of NBA Betting in the US

Betting on the NBA in the US is legal, but only in states that regulate sports betting. To place wagers, you must be physically located in one of these states, such as New York, New Jersey, Colorado, or Illinois, among others.

Licensed sportsbooks in these states offer various NBA betting markets, from moneylines to player props, making it easy and safe to bet on your favorite teams and games.

How Basketball Works

Basketball is a team sport played on a court with two hoops at either end. Each team consists of five players who aim to score points by shooting the ball through the opponent’s hoop. A game is divided into four quarters, each lasting 12 minutes in the NBA.

The team with the most points at the end of regulation wins. If tied, the game goes into overtime.

Key basketball rules include:

• Teams must attempt a shot within 24 seconds (shot clock).
• Players can dribble, pass, or shoot the ball but cannot travel (move without dribbling).
• Fouls result in free throws or possession changes.
• Only five team fouls are allowed per quarter before free throws are awarded for non-shooting fouls.

The fast-paced nature and strategic plays make basketball thrilling to watch and bet on!

NBA Betting Lines: How to Bet on BasketBall

NBA betting lines come in three main types: moneyline, point spread, and totals. These lines are set based on factors like team records, player performance, injuries, head-to-head history, rest, and location.

• Moneyline: A simple bet on which team will win the game outright, regardless of the score.
  Why choose it? It’s generally a safer option as it doesn’t depend on margins or multiple outcomes.
• Point Spread: A bet on whether a team will win or lose by a specific number of points. The spread predicts the margin of victory or defeat.
  Key to success: Analyze team dynamics and player performance, as spreads can be harder to predict.
• Total (Over/Under): A bet on the total number of points scored by both teams combined. Here are your options:
  • Game totals (points scored by both teams).
  • Team totals (points scored by one team).
  • Player props (specific stats like points, assists, or rebounds).

NBA Betting Odds

Let’s see in detail the different types of NBA betting odds, starting with the main ones.

Moneyline, Point Spread, Totals Odds

• Moneyline Odds:
  • Positive odds (+150): $100 bet wins $150.
  • Negative odds (-200): Bet $200 to win $100.
  • Tip: Negative odds = favorite; positive odds = underdog.
• Point Spread Odds: Bet on the margin of victory.
  • Example:
    • Lakers -5.5: Must win by 6+ points.
    • Lakers +5.5: Can lose by up to 5 points or win outright.
• Over/Under (Totals) Odds: Bet on whether the total points scored will be over or under a set number.
  • Example: Over/Under 210.5 → Bet on more or fewer than 210.5 points.

NBA Live Odds

NBA live odds allow you to place bets during the game, reflecting real-time developments rather than pregame expectations. Then why choose live betting? Live odds provide a dynamic and engaging betting experience with basketball.

These odds change rapidly, making timing crucial for success. Here are some key factors to consider with live bets:

• Game momentum.
• Player performances.
• Time remaining in the game, half, or quarter.

NBA Draft Odds

NBA Draft odds let you bet on future stars before they even join the league. Common draft bets include:

• First overall pick.
• Specific draft position (over/under).
• Which team drafts a player.

Draft odds often favor unpredictability, with many bets offering plus-money (+200). To place this type of bet, you must have in-depth knowledge about the team needs, the player reports, and draft history.

Here are my best tips for success:

• Use mock drafts and expert reports for insights.
• Pay attention to team workouts and draft strategies for a clearer picture.

NBA Finals Odds

NBA Finals odds reflect the following factors:

• Team Performance: Win-loss records, point differentials, and player stats.
• Injuries: Odds shift significantly when key players are injured.
• Historical Success: Teams with a strong playoff legacy often have shorter odds.
• Betting Market: Sportsbooks adjust odds to balance wagering and minimize losses.
• Matchups: Home-court advantage and game schedules also play a role.

Here are interesting historical betting trends before the 2024 NBA finals between the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks:

• No. 1 seeds: 29-18 straight up; 25-22 against the spread in the past 10 years.
• Total points Under: 105-74-4 since 1991; 4-1 in the 2023 Finals.
• Home teams: 31-26 straight up; 27-29-1 against the spread since 2013.

NBA Playoff Odds

Playoff odds are tighter than regular-season odds, reflecting the higher stakes and unique dynamics of postseason basketball. Here are the key differences between the regular season and Playoffs:

1. Intensity:
   • Regular season: Rested players, experimental lineups, lower urgency.
   • Playoffs: Best lineups, strategic adjustments, every game matters.
2. Matchups:
   • Regular season: Varied opponents and styles.
   • Playoffs: Series against the same team highlights matchup-specific strategies.
3. Betting Markets:
   • Regular season: Widespread betting, fluctuating odds.
   • Playoffs: Limited games, sharper lines, and detailed sportsbook analysis.

Scoring Trends: Playoff games typically have lower scoring, impacting over/under totals. Data from 2008 to 2022 confirms this difference:

Year	Overall Games	Regular	Playoffs	Diff	Diff %
2008	1316	198.57	188.63	9.94	95.0%
2009	1315	198.50	191.10	7.39	96.3%
2010	1312	199.98	195.10	4.88	97.6%
2011	1311	197.73	186.25	11.48	94.2%
2012	1074	191.44	184.92	6.52	96.6%
2013	1314	195.04	188.03	7.01	96.4%
2014	1319	200.74	197.36	3.38	98.3%
2015	1311	198.71	199.66	(0.95)	100.5%
2016	1316	204.16	199.35	4.81	97.6%
2017	1309	210.11	211.47	(1.36)	100.6%
2018	1312	211.57	208.29	3.28	98.5%
2019	1312	220.72	213.76	6.96	96.8%
2020	971	221.76	N/A	N/A	N/A
2021	1171	223.01	220.23	2.78	98.8%
2022	1323	220.14	212.09	7.45	96.6%
Total	N/A	206.86	201.66	5.20	97.5%

How to Read NBA Odds

When betting on NBA games, odds can be presented in three main formats: American, Decimal, and Fractional. Understanding how to interpret these formats is crucial for making informed betting decisions. 

In the following examples, I’ll be using the two NBA teams: the Lakers and the Celtics.

American Odds

American odds are typically used in the US and are expressed as either positive or negative numbers.

• Positive Odds (+): Indicate how much profit you would make on a $100 bet.
  Example: +150 means you would win $150 on a $100 bet.
• Negative Odds (-): Indicate how much you need to bet to win $100.
  Example: -200 means you need to bet $200 to win $100.

Team	American Odds	Bet Amount	Payout (Includes Bet)
Lakers	+150	$100	$250
Celtics	-200	$200	$300

Decimal Odds

Decimal odds are commonly used in Europe and Australia. They represent the total payout (including the original bet) per unit.

The formula for calculating total payout: Total Payout = Bet Amount × Decimal Odds

Team	Decimal Odds	Bet Amount	Payout (Includes Bet)
Lakers	2.50	$100	$250
Celtics	1.50	$100	$150

For decimal odds, the higher the odds, the higher the payout. Like American odds, the higher the odds of any event means it is not as likely to happen as other events. 

Fractional Odds

Fractional odds are traditionally used in the UK. They are presented as a fraction, showing the profit relative to the bet.

• Formula: Profit = (Bet × Fraction)
  • 5/2 means you win $5 for every $2 bet.
  • 1/2 means you win $1 for every $2 bet.

Team	Fractional Odds	Bet Amount	Payout (Includes Bet)
Lakers	5/2	$100	$350
Celtics	1/2	$100	$150

NBA Picks

There are three main types of NBA picks that have lots of variety within each:

• Straight Picks: These involve betting on a single outcome. These are the safest bets with the lowest odds, since they don’t rely on multiple events.
• Parlays: These combine multiple bets into one. For example, you could bet on the Knicks to win on the moneyline, and also cover the spread. The combined odds create higher potential payouts (e.g., combining -200 and -110 into +186). Sportsbooks handle the calculations for you, making parlays a popular choice for risk-tolerant bettors.
• Player Props: Prop bets focus on player-specific stats, such as points scored or steals. They can be part of straight bets or same-game parlays, which combine various bets within one game. Player props add entertainment value and variety to NBA betting.

Free Picks vs Paid Picks

When seeking expert NBA picks, you have two options:

• Free Picks: Experts share their picks online at no cost. These often attract more engagement since they’re accessible to all and may come from enthusiasts who simply enjoy sharing their insights.
• Paid Picks: Require a subscription, often delivered via platforms like Discord, email, or private social media accounts. Subscriptions can range from $9.99/month to $99.99/year.

Are paid picks worth it? Yes, they can be valuable if you trust the expert and lack the time to do your research. However, ensure the cost doesn’t outweigh your profits. Even with paid picks, you must selectively follow advice to stay profitable.

NBA Betting Trends

Analyzing betting trends and using them to make informed betting decisions involves several steps. Here are some examples of analyzing betting trends with basketball:

• Public Betting Percentages: This shows the percentage of bets placed on each side of a bet.
• Line Movement: This indicates changes in the betting odds, which can reflect where the money is going.
• Contrarian Betting: This involves betting against the majority. If a significant percentage of the public is on one side, it might be profitable to bet on the other side, especially if the line hasn’t moved much.
• Sharp Money: Professional bettors (sharps) often bet large amounts, causing line movements. Following these movements can give insights into where the smart money is going.
• Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the public betting percentages, it can indicate sharp money on the less popular side.

Tools and Resources

• Websites: Use sites like Odds Shark, Sports Insights, and Action Network for betting trends and analysis.
• Software: Employ tools like Excel or specialized betting software to analyze data and run simulations.

Utilizing NBA Betting Splits

NBA betting splits show how bets and money are distributed on a game.

• Bet Count: The percentage of total bets placed on each side (e.g., 70% on Team A, 30% on Team B).
• Bet Handle: The percentage of total money wagered on each side (e.g., 60% on Team A, 40% on Team B).

Consensus Betting: High percentages on one side reflect public consensus, which may influence line movement. Betting against the public (contrarian betting) can exploit emotional biases and create value.

Best NBA Betting Strategies

To succeed in NBA betting, especially during high-stakes events like the Finals, it’s essential to adopt strategies that leverage research, trends, and situational insights. Here are some of the most effective strategies:

1. Analyze Historical Betting Data
2. Focus on Matchups and Player Analysis
3. Use Advanced Metrics
4. Account for Pace and Tempo
5. Track Form and Momentum
6. Leverage Data Visualization Tools
7. Be Adaptable (Bonus Strategy)

Analyze Historical Betting Data

Historical trends provide valuable context for making informed decisions:

• Seed Records: Higher-seeded teams often perform better but may not always cover the spread.
• Point Totals: Finals games typically have tighter defenses, which can affect totals.
• Public Betting:
  • Teams with 51%+ of bets cover the spread only 42% of the time since 2005.
  • Public favorites with 60%+ support cover just 34% of the time.
  • Public underdogs are 21-32 ATS (against the spread) since 2005.

Tip: Betting against public trends (contrarian betting) can regularly uncover value.

Focus on Matchups and Player Analysis

Matchups are pivotal in the Finals, where every weakness is exploited:

• Study head-to-head performances to identify mismatches.
• Monitor player injuries and recent form, as these have an outsized impact on the outcome.

Example: A star player struggling with an injury may lower team performance, creating opportunities for betting props or adjusted spreads.

Use Advanced Metrics

Incorporate advanced analytics to gain more profound insights into team and player efficiency. Why does it matter? These metrics can help identify undervalued teams or players, especially in betting props.

• eFG% (Effective Field Goal Percentage): Measures scoring efficiency.
• TS% (True Shooting Percentage): Accounts for free throws and three-point shots.
• PER (Player Efficiency Rating): Evaluates overall player impact.

Account for Pace and Tempo

Teams’ playing speed influences scoring and totals:

• High-tempo teams create more scoring opportunities, favoring overs.
• Slow-tempo teams with strong defenses lean toward unders.

Finals Insight: Playoff basketball tends to slow down, so unders often become more favorable.

Track Form and Momentum

Teams on winning streaks or with recent strong performances often have higher morale and confidence. Conversely, teams coming off tough losses may struggle.

Tip: Momentum can also influence individual player props, such as points or rebounds.

Leverage Data Visualization Tools

Use visual tools to uncover patterns not immediately obvious in raw stats. Trends like defensive improvement or scoring consistency can guide your bets.

Be Adaptable

Finals betting demands flexibility. Monitor live betting odds for real-time opportunities and adjust your strategy based on game developments, such as injuries or foul trouble.

Understand the NBA Before Starting to Bet

Understanding the NBA landscape is a good foundation for NBA betting, so let’s review some of the best players and teams in the NBA for your next wagers.

Best NBA Players

• Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets): A three-time MVP and the driving force behind Denver’s 2023 championship with his elite scoring and play making.
• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee Bucks): Known for his dominance on both ends of the court, Giannis became the first player to average 30+ points on 60% shooting in a season.
• Jaylen Brown (Boston Celtics): Delivered a Finals MVP performance in 2023, leading Boston to their first title since 2009 with clutch play and leadership.
• Anthony Edwards (Minnesota Timberwolves): Took a huge leap last season, advancing to the Western Conference finals and earning a spot on Team USA.
• Luka Doncic (Dallas Mavericks): A scoring machine and play making genius, Doncic led the league with 33.9 points per game and carried Dallas to the Finals.

Best NBA Teams

• Boston Celtics: Dominated last season and clinched the championship. They remain the team to beat.
• New York Knicks: Returned to elite form but fell short in the playoffs. With Jalen Brunson’s contract extension and the addition of Mikal Bridges, they’re a strong contender if healthy.
• Minnesota Timberwolves: Strengthened by adding Rob Dillingham and Terrance Shannon Jr., they are poised for another deep playoff run.

Ready for Your Next NBA Bet?

This guide equips you with everything you need to elevate your NBA betting strategy, with all the necessary information about NBA odds. Start by signing up with one of the recommended sportsbooks to unlock exciting sports betting offers.

Ready to explore even more ways to boost your bets? Check out our dedicated page on betting tips for beginners to master your skills.